Oscar? Already?

In the last few years, it seems like there is just too much going on in February. We already had Valentine's Day, President's Day, Black History Month and weather that makes it too cold to leave the house. Then, they go and start dragging out the football post-season so that we have the Super Bowl in early February instead of late January. Then there is TV sweeps, where every network drama claims that each episode is an "event" and pretends that they are gonna kill off the main character, but instead wimp out and kill some minor player, like the main character's mother who was dying anyway. Then, they cut a month off the entertainment award season and we have the Academy Awards in late February. So, there is just no freaking way I can see all the movies in time to make an educated stab at my annual predictions. But that probably never stopped any member of the Academy or Media Critic, so why should it stop me?

This year, it pretty much feels like the acting awards are preordained going in. Forest and Helen for being a 'King' and Queen respectively. Jennifer and Eddie for Dreamgirls. For director, looks like it will be Scorsese finally. There is a 60% shot that a song from Dreamgirls will win best song, and I'm thinking that those Prius driving, Hollywood kooks will vote Al Gore's movie as best documentary, even though to some it seems the film might be better categorized as fiction. But then again, that didn't stop them from awarding Michael Moore the same award a few years back for a film far more fictional. For best foreign film, I don't see how Pan's Labyrinth can't win, although since it was the only foreign film entry I actually saw, I guess I'm a bit biased on that one. And finally, I'm hoping that Kevin O'Connell will win the best sound mixing award for "Apocalypto." While this may seem an obscure addition to my usually acting centered predictions, poor guy has been nominated an astounding 18 times without winning. And you just know he's probably getting really sick and tired of the Susan Lucci jokes.

But back to the acting awards. This year, all of the favorites are also my personal favorites, so it doesn't feel like there is too much to say. But that never really stopped me before, so here goes:

Best Supporting Actor -
Alan Arkin was loads of fun in Little Miss Sunshine, but I really think that Paul Dano as the mute by choice brother in the same film was the one that really deserved a nomination the most. Dijmon Hounsou seems to be consistently good in all he does, so he will probably have more chances in the future. I just love that Mark Wahlberg is nominated, and I'm so happy for him that I'm not even going to call him the name I really want to. He probably doesn't have a shot in Hell tonight, but he'll look hot on the red carpet, so I'm good with that. Hollywood loves a great comeback story, and while many are pointing to Eddie Murphy as the comeback kid, it really is Jackie Earle Haley with the sweetest comeback story of the year. A child actor that went from the Bad News Bears to relativeobscurity in Texas post puberty, his story touches the heart a little more. Cause there is a difference between coming back from leaving acting because Hollywood forgot you and had no use for you once you outgrew your cuteness, to coming back from making 40 bad movies in a row, and pickng up hooker transvestites while your wife is waiting at home with your 5 kids. I think if there is an upset tonight, this will be the one. And it would be an upset that no one would be upset about - except maybe Eddie. And seriously, I think it will be Eddie anyway. Just hope he gives us a good speech - either funny or touching - but not just a quick thank as he rushes off the stage.

Best Supporting Actress -
Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, both nominated for Babel will likely split any vote from fans of their film. Both probably share the "honor to be nominated" spot for this year. Cate Blanchett already has one, so no one will feel bad not voting for her again. And, while cute as a button, Abigail Breslin will basically be remembered for dancing funny. If that was all it took to win an Academy Award, my college boyfriend Greg would one already. That leaves the favorite going in, Jennifer Hudson. I really hope she wins, but I do wish that everyone (and I'm talking to you, ladies of The View) would shut up with the comments about how Simon Cowell supposedly kicked her off of American Idol and how he should feel stupid about that. Cause if you all recall, Jennifer made it into the Top 12 (which Simon has control of) but she lost out when America started voting (which Simon has no control over.) Therefore, we/America are the reason she lost, and we were wrong. Deal with it, give the girl her Oscar, and lets all move on.

Best Actor -
Who would have ever thought that a former Mousketeer, the Fresh Prince, the football player from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, and TV's Growing Pains' version of Cousin Oliver would all be up for an Oscar against Peter O'Toole? Or that after being denied Oscar 7 previous times and being 75, normally a gimme in Hollywood, that O'Toole would not be the favorite among this group? Still, he could pull it out, but I really thing tonight's long denied winner will be in the Directing category. I love Will Smith (I mean, who doesn't?) and I am sure he will end up with an Oscar in the years to come, but I'm not feeling that this is his year. While I hear that Ryan Gosling was really really good in his film, I can't imaging that he will slip through as the winner either. My wish for him is that he looks really hot on the red carpet, and that his girlfriend doesn't wear that awful pink streak she's been sporting lately to the event. Leonardo DeCaprio could squeak in this year based on having two great performances (although only nominated for one) this past year. But, as he is to play Teddy Roosevelt in a Scorsese film set to release in 2008, I think he will have another, better shot at Oscar with that roll and director. In fact, I'll call it here - Leo wins in 2009 for playing Teddy Roosevelt. Finally, that leaves us with Forest Whitaker. I've loved him forever. I cried when he died in the Crying Game. He moved me as a criminal in Panic Room. He scared the living crap out of me in as the stalkerish victim of hospital neglect on ER recently. I would really really love to see him win. My only wish is that he have a speech prepared this time. His loss of words at the Golden Globes was touching, but when he replayed it at the SAG awards, it was just sort of awkward. So please, Forest, take a cue from the ladies and have a list of thank yous stuffed up your sleeve with the Kleenex.

Best Actress -
Judi Dench has won before and will probably win again one day before its over. Just not this year. Meryl Streep has won before and probably will again one day too. Just not this year. Plus, they don't normally award anyone for a comedy except in supporting rolls, a fact for which Mira Sorvino, Whoopi Goldberg and Marrisa Tomei are still thanking their lucky stars. Poor Kate Winslett. She's not gonna win either. In fact, I worry that she will end up like Peter O'Toole 40 years from now, nominated over and over but not winning until she is old and gray, when she finally either receives an honorary one or wins over more deserving performances simply because she is old and we need to honor her for a career in full. I despise Penelope Cruz. Really, she bugs me to the nth degree. She will probably show up to the awards with her, uhm, friend Selma Hyack on one side, somebody else's recent ex-boyfriend or soon to be ex-husband on the other, and her hair piled up on top of her head like she's just had it done by Truvy from Steel Magnolias. Needless to say, I don't want her to win. And thankfully, even if she had a chance, there is probably no way that Helen Mirren won't win. I like her a lot. And she will probably make a great speech. Forest Whitaker, take note.

Best Picture - This is the one award that really seems up for grabs. The Departed and Letters from Iwo Jima both seem like movies that could hold up as Oscar winners in the years to come, and I think either could win. Although, it does seem unlikely that a Japanese subtitled film would win. While I haven't seen Babel, I've been told by several who have that it was a very difficult film to watch, and I think that could be its undoing in this catagory. The Queen just doesn't seem big enough of a film to win. Therefore, I'm going with Little Miss Sunshine. The scene with Olive and Dwayne after he learns he will never be a pilot - her with her head resting on his sholder, that unspoken moment between the big brother and little sister - it reminded me of my own big brother, and how much I love him. And sometimes, we should just acknowledge a film that makes us laugh a little, cry a little, and remember why we love our family.

Its a Wonderful Night for Oscar.......

Coming up with my Oscar picks this year has been a little tough. Not that there weren't some great, award worthy performances. Its just that I like so many of the nominees, and it makes it hard to be as snarky as I like to be. But, I will push forward and try my best. After all, my audience, all 5 of you, are depending on me.

I will say that other than my picks for Best Director and Best Movie, I know that none of my other choices probably have a chance in Hell to win tonight. In fact, when I entered my picks to win a prize on CNN.com, I did not go with the picks from my heart - I went with predictable. So I know my percentages will suck when this is over. But I still wanted to put it out there into the Universe, just to give them all a boost. So anyway, here we go:

Best Supporting Actress

Also known as the Career Kiss of Death Award, so why put that off on someone I like. Truthfully, I care nothing for Rachel Weisz, who has won all the preOscar awards of value. So, if she wins, which she probably will, and we never hear from her again, that will actually be OK for me. I never heard of Amy Adams, so I don't guess I'd miss her either. Frances McDormand already has a win, but if she won again, and then disappeared, it would be a good thing for all actresses over 40 who still have their original faces and boobs, because then they could have a chance to play the hot actresses' normal best friend/coworker/older sister roles. If we take the CKoD factor out of it, seeing Catherine Keener win would be a real treat since she has been wonderful in everything I've ever seen her in and has been overlooked for so long. And, we'd have the fun of holding our breath to see if she thanks her husband, Dermot Mulroney, or if she calls him Dylan McDermott by mistake. (It could happen!) Finally, there is my pick, Michelle Williams, playing the wife/significant other of a secretly gay man - and way more convincingly than her former Dawson's Creek costar has done this past year. You know, Catherine Keener will always have the opportunity to play these quirky, award caliber roles, while I worry that Michelle will always be Jen from DC to most and won't have that many future chances to be in this spot. She probably won't win it, but I'll have my fingers crossed for her.

Best Supporting Actor

I'm sort of rooting against William Hurt in this one. He already has an Oscar, and for some reason, he just bugs me. And while many are pointing toward Paul Giamatti as pay back for not being nominated in the last few years, he bugs as well. So, its working out to be a Battle of my Crushes. - 85's Crush Matt Dillion, 95's Crush George Clooney and 05's Crush Jake Gyllenhall. I want one of my hot boys to win, and I'm terribly torn between the three. I'd love to see Matt win just because it has been a long dry career - awards wise. And, as the only acting nominee for Crash, he could win as the representative of a larger group. And George - yeah, your politics irritate, but at least you have a good sense of humor (uhum, Sean Penn, I'm looking at you)and so I could get behind a Clooney win. But, usually, when you have the multiple nominations, that pretty much guarantees you the Screenwriting Award. But in this case, it looks like the writers for Crash really deserve that one, so maybe the acting award will be the consolation prize for a change. But my pick, even though I'm pretty sure I'll lose on this one too, is Jake. Loved him in Donnie Darko. Loved him more in this one. But even if he doesn't get it, I'm sure we'll see him back here again.

Best Actress

While not rooting against Judi Dench or Charlize Theron, I really don't want to see either of them win. They have Oscars, they don't need to be greedy. And I'm still kind of traumatized from Charlize being so orange when she won a few years back, that I don't want to have to see her on the front page of everything tomorrow, cause I might have a flashback. Keira Knightly is young, and she's British, so she'll have plenty of chances in the future. I say, wait until she is a Dame before we give her one. Reese Witherspoon is just as cute as a bunny and learned to sing and play instruments for her role. She will probably win. My only thought against her is that she didn't really have to ugly it up for the role, so that might count against her in the end. I truly hope that this will allow Felicity Huffman to slip in and win. I've loved her since Sports Night, and I've enjoyed watching her do so well in the last two years. I just hope they don't hold that Emmy against her. Cause an Emmy and an Oscar in the same year seems sort of greedy.


Best Actor

Philip Seymor Hoffman has been a fine actor and overlooked for years. He deserves to win, and probably will, but I just don't want him to. He is always brilliant, so he will always have another chance. (Yeah, I know he'll win, but I can hold on to my dream until at least 11:30 p.m. tonight) But on the odd chance he doesn't win, there were some great performances, and no one in this category has an Oscar, so I'd be happy for any of them. Although, I'd sort of be afraid of what Joaquin Phoenix would do or say if he made it to the stage. Not that he'd be obnoxious politically, but that he'd have another hallucination and think a lizard was in his ear or something. I really don't think that David Strathairn has much of a chance at all - but I'm sure it was an honor just to be nominated. I was so set to jump on the Heath Ledger train, cause he was just awesome in his role, but then I saw Terrance Howard on Oprah this week, and dang if I'm not in love. The man has the most awesome smile. If he wins, I will be doing a happy dance. But in the end, I'm sticking with Heath (and not just because I love his Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream flavor.)


Best Director

Bennett Miller. Who? Out. Steven Spielberg, enjoy the after party. Clooney gets his acting award, Paul Haggis wins for his Crash screenplay, and Ang Lee gets a well deserved directing award.

Best Picture

I have an hour to complete this post, take a shower, put on my PJs, get curled up with my blanky and a pint of Ben and Jerry's Heath Bar Crunch and start watching Isaac Mizrahi molest some people on the red carpet. Therefore, I'm cutting to the chase. Brokeback Mountain wins.

So there you have it. Good Night and Good Luck.